顶刊Econometrica 2024年第4期目录和摘要
目录
01 Presidential Address: Economics and Measurement: New Measures to Model Decision Making
总统演讲:经济学和测量:建模决策的新方法
02 Monotone Additive Statistics
单调加性统计
03 Beyond Unbounded Beliefs: How Preferences and Information Interplay in Social Learning
超越无限信念:偏好和信息如何在社会学习中相互作用
04 The Unequal Effects of Pollution on Labor Supply
污染对劳动力供给的不平等影响
05 Sequentially Stable Outcomes
顺序稳定的结果
06 Nonparametric Identification of Differentiated Products Demand Using Micro Data
基于微数据的差异化产品需求非参数识别
07 The State Capacity Ceiling on Tax Rates: Evidence From Randomized Tax Abatements in the DRC
税率的国家能力上限:来自刚果民主共和国随机减税的证据
08 Searching for Approval
寻求认可
09 Peak‐Hour Road Congestion Pricing: Experimental Evidence and Equilibrium Implications
高峰时段道路拥堵收费:实验证据和均衡含义
10 Multinational Enforcement of Labor Law: Experimental Evidence on Strengthening Occupational Safety and Health Committees
多国执行劳动法:加强职业安全和健康委员会的实验证据
11 The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle
美国公共债务估值难题
Title：
Ingvild Almås, Orazio Attanasio, Pamela Jervis
Most empirical work in economics has considered only a narrow set of measures as meaningful and useful to characterize individual behavior, a restriction justified by the difficulties in collecting a wider set. However, this approach often forces the use of strong assumptions to estimate the parameters that inform individual behavior and identify causal links. In this paper, we argue that a more flexible and broader approach to measurement could be extremely useful and allow the estimation of richer and more realistic models that rest on weaker identifying assumptions. We argue that the design of measurement tools should interact with, and depend on, the models economists use. Measurement is not a substitute for rigorous theory, it is an important complement to it, and should be developed in parallel to it. We illustrate these arguments with a model of parental behavior estimated on pilot data that combines conventional measures with novel ones.
经济学中的大多数实证工作都认为，只有一组狭窄的衡量标准对描述个人行为有意义和有用，收集更广泛的衡量标准的困难证明了这一限制是合理的。然而，这种方法经常强迫使用强假设来估计通知个人行为和确定因果关系的参数。在本文中，我们认为一个更灵活和更广泛的测量方法可能是非常有用的，并且允许基于较弱识别假设的更丰富和更现实的模型的估计。我们认为，测量工具的设计应该与经济学家使用的模型相互作用，并依赖于模型。测量不能代替严格的理论，而是对它的重要补充，应该与它并行发展。我们用一个结合传统措施和新措施的试点数据估计的父母行为模型来说明这些论点。
Title：
Xiaosheng Mu, Luciano Pomatto, Philipp Strack, Omer Tamuz
The expectation is an example of a descriptive statistic that is monotone with respect to stochastic dominance, and additive for sums of independent random variables. We provide a complete characterization of such statistics, and explore a number of applications to models of individual and group decision-making. These include a representation of stationary monotone time preferences, extending the work of Fishburn and Rubinstein (1982) to time lotteries. This extension offers a new perspective on risk attitudes toward time, as well as on the aggregation of multiple discount factors. We also offer a novel class of non-expected utility preferences over gambles which satisfy invariance to background risk as well as betweenness, but are versatile enough to capture mixed risk attitudes.
期望是描述性统计量的一个例子，它相对于随机优势是单调的，对于独立随机变量的和是可加的。我们提供了这样的统计完整的特征，并探讨了一些应用到模型的个人和群体决策。其中包括平稳单调时间偏好的表示，将Fishburn和Rubinstein(1982)的工作扩展到时间彩票。这个扩展提供了对时间的风险态度的新视角，以及对多个贴现因素的聚合。我们还提供了一类新的非预期效用偏好，以满足对背景风险和中间性的不变性，但足以捕获混合风险态度。
Title：
Navin Kartik, SangMok Lee, Tianhao Liu, Daniel Rappoport
When does society eventually learn the truth, or take the correct action, via observational learning? In a general model of sequential learning over social networks, we identify a simple condition for learning dubbed excludability. Excludability is a joint property of agents' preferences and their information. We develop two classes of preferences and information that jointly satisfy excludability: (i) for a one-dimensional state, preferences with single-crossing differences and a new informational condition, directionally unbounded beliefs; and (ii) for a multi-dimensional state, intermediate preferences and subexponential location-shift information. These applications exemplify that with multiple states, “unbounded beliefs” is not only unnecessary for learning, but incompatible with familiar informational structures like normal information. Unbounded beliefs demands that a single agent can identify the correct action. Excludability, on the other hand, only requires that a single agent must be able to displace any wrong action, even if she cannot take the correct action.
社会什么时候通过观察学习最终了解真相，或者采取正确的行动?在社交网络上的顺序学习的一般模型中，我们确定了一个简单的学习条件，称为排他性。排他性是代理人的偏好及其信息的共同属性。我们开发了两类共同满足排他性的偏好和信息:(i)对于一维状态，具有单交叉差异的偏好和一个新的信息条件，方向无界信念;(ii)对于多维状态，中间偏好和亚指数位置移动信息。这些应用表明，在多种状态下，“无界信念”不仅对学习是不必要的，而且与熟悉的信息结构(如正常信息)不相容。无界信念要求单个主体能够识别正确的行为。另一方面，排他性只要求单个行为者必须能够取代任何错误的行为，即使她不能采取正确的行为。
Title：
Bridget Hoffmann, Juan Pablo Rud
We use high-frequency data on fine particulate matter air pollution (PM 2.5) at the locality level to study the effects of high pollution on daily labor supply decisions in the metropolitan area of Mexico City. We document a negative, non-linear relationship between PM 2.5 and same-day labor supply, with strong effects on days with extremely high pollution levels. On these days, the average worker experiences a reduction of around 7.5% of working hours. Workers partially compensate for lost hours by increasing their labor supply on days that follow high-pollution days. We find that low-income workers reduce their labor supply significantly less than high-income workers. Unequal responses to high pollution along other dimensions (job quality, flexibility, gender) matter, but less than income. We provide suggestive evidence that reductions in labor supply due to high pollution are consistent with avoidance behavior.
我们使用地方层面细颗粒物空气污染(PM 2.5)的高频数据来研究墨西哥城大都市区高污染对日常劳动力供应决策的影响。我们记录了PM 2.5与当日劳动力供应之间的负非线性关系，在污染水平极高的日子里有很强的影响。在这些日子里，普通工人的工作时间减少了7.5%左右。工人们通过在高污染日之后增加劳动力供应来部分补偿损失的工时。研究发现，低收入劳动者减少劳动力供给的幅度明显小于高收入劳动者。在其他方面(工作质量、灵活性、性别)对高污染的不平等反应很重要，但与收入无关。我们提供了暗示性的证据，表明高污染导致的劳动力供给减少与回避行为是一致的。
Title：
Francesc Dilmé
This paper introduces and analyzes sequentially stable outcomes in extensive-form games. An outcome ω is sequentially stable if, for any ε > 0 and any small enough perturbation of the players' behavior, there is an ε-perturbation of the players' payoffs and a corresponding equilibrium with outcome close to ω. Sequentially stable outcomes exist for all finite games and are outcomes of sequential equilibria. They are closely related to stable sets of equilibria and satisfy versions of forward induction, iterated strict equilibrium dominance, and invariance to simultaneous moves. In signaling games, sequentially stable outcomes pass the standard selection criteria, and when payoffs are generic, they coincide with outcomes of stable sets of equilibria.
本文介绍并分析了广义对策的序稳定结果。如果当ε > 0且参与者行为的扰动足够小时，参与者的收益存在ε-扰动，且结果接近于ω，则结果ω是顺序稳定的。序列稳定结果存在于所有有限对策中，是序列均衡的结果。它们与稳定均衡集密切相关，满足前向归纳、迭代严格均衡优势和同步运动不变性。在信号博弈中，顺序稳定的结果通过标准选择标准，当收益是一般的，它们与稳定均衡的结果一致。
Title：
Steven T. Berry, Philip A. Haile
We examine identification of differentiated products demand when one has “micro data” linking the characteristics and choices of individual consumers. Our model nests standard specifications featuring rich observed and unobserved consumer heterogeneity as well as product/market-level unobservables that introduce the problem of econometric endogeneity. Previous work establishes identification of such models using market-level data and instruments for all prices and quantities. Micro data provides a panel structure that facilitates richer demand specifications and reduces requirements on both the number and types of instrumental variables. We address identification of demand in the standard case in which nonprice product characteristics are assumed exogenous, but also cover identification of demand elasticities and other key features when these product characteristics are endogenous and not instrumented. We discuss implications of these results for applied work.
当我们拥有连接个体消费者的特征和选择的“微观数据”时，我们研究了差异化产品需求的识别。我们的模型包含了标准规范，这些规范具有丰富的可观察和不可观察的消费者异质性，以及引入计量经济学内生性问题的产品/市场层面的不可观察性。以前的工作利用所有价格和数量的市场数据和工具确定了这些模型。微数据提供了一个面板结构，促进了更丰富的需求规格，并减少了对工具变量的数量和类型的要求。我们在假设非价格产品特征是外生的标准情况下解决需求识别问题，但也涵盖了当这些产品特征是内生的而不是工具化的情况下需求弹性和其他关键特征的识别。我们讨论了这些结果对应用工作的影响。
Title：
Augustin Bergeron, Gabriel Tourek, Jonathan L. Weigel
This paper investigates how tax rates and tax enforcement jointly impact fiscal capacity in low-income countries. We study a policy experiment in the D.R. Congo that randomly assigned 38,028 property owners to the status quo tax rate or to a rate reduction. This variation in tax liabilities reveals that the status quo rate lies above the revenue-maximizing tax rate (RMTR). Reducing rates by about one-third would maximize government revenue by increasing tax compliance. We then exploit two sources of variation in enforcement—randomized enforcement letters and random assignment of tax collectors—to show that the RMTR increases with enforcement. Including an enforcement message on tax letters or replacing tax collectors in the bottom quartile of enforcement capacity with average collectors would raise the RMTR by about 40%. Tax rates and enforcement are thus complementary levers. Jointly optimizing tax rates and enforcement would lead to 10% higher revenue gains than optimizing them independently. These findings provide experimental evidence that low government enforcement capacity sets a binding ceiling on the revenue-maximizing tax rate in some developing countries, thereby demonstrating the value of increasing tax rates in tandem with enforcement to expand fiscal capacity.
本文研究了税率和税收执法如何共同影响低收入国家的财政能力。我们研究了刚果民主共和国的一项政策实验，该实验随机分配了38,028名业主，使他们的税率保持不变或降低。纳税负债的这种变化表明，现状税率高于收入最大化税率(RMTR)。将税率降低约三分之一将通过提高税收合规性使政府收入最大化。然后，我们利用执法的两个变化来源——随机执法函和随机分配税收人员——来表明RMTR随着执法而增加。在税务信函中加入执法信息，或将执法能力处于最低四分之一的税务人员替换为平均水平的税务人员，将使RMTR提高约40%。因此，税率和执法是互补的杠杆。与单独优化税率和执行相比，联合优化税率和执行将带来10%的收入增长。这些发现提供了实验证据，表明在一些发展中国家，低政府执法能力对收入最大化税率设定了具有约束力的上限，从而证明了在执法的同时提高税率以扩大财政能力的价值。
Title：
Sumit Agarwal, John Grigsby, Ali Hortaçsu, Gregor Matvos, Amit Seru, Vincent Yao
This paper theoretically and empirically studies the interaction of search and application approval in credit markets. Risky borrowers internalize the probability that their application is rejected and behave as if they had high search costs. Thus, “overpayment” may be a poor proxy for consumer sophistication since it partly represents rational search in response to rejections. Contrary to standard search models, our model implies (1) endogenous adverse selection through the search and application approval process, (2) a possibly non-monotone or non-decreasing relationship between search and realized interest, default, and application approval rates, and (3) search costs estimated from transaction prices alone are biased. We find support for the model's predictions using a unique data set detailing search behavior of mortgage borrowers. Estimating the model, we find that screening is informative and search is costly. Counterfactual analyses reveal that tightening lending standards and discrimination through application rejection both increase equilibrium interest rates. This increase in realized interest rates is in part due to strategic complementarity in bank rate setting.
本文从理论和实证两方面研究了信贷市场中搜索与申请审批的互动关系。有风险的借款人内化了他们的申请被拒绝的可能性，并表现得好像他们有很高的搜索成本。因此，“多付”可能不能很好地代表消费者的成熟程度，因为它在一定程度上代表了对拒绝的理性搜索。与标准搜索模型相反，我们的模型暗示(1)通过搜索和申请审批过程的内生逆向选择，(2)搜索与实现利息、违约率和申请批准率之间可能存在非单调或非递减关系，以及(3)仅从交易价格估计的搜索成本是有偏差的。我们发现支持模型的预测使用一个独特的数据集详细搜索行为的抵押贷款借款人。通过对模型的估计，我们发现筛选信息量大，而搜索成本高。反事实分析表明，收紧贷款标准和通过拒绝申请而产生的歧视都会增加均衡利率。实际利率的增加部分是由于银行利率设定的战略互补。
Title：
Gabriel Kreindler
Developing country megacities suffer from severe road traffic congestion, yet the level of congestion is not a direct measure of equilibrium inefficiency. I study the peak-hour traffic congestion equilibrium in Bangalore. To measure travel preferences, I use a model of departure time choice to design a field experiment with congestion pricing policies and implement it using precise GPS data. Commuter responses in the experiment reveal moderate schedule inflexibility and a high value of time. I then show that in Bangalore, traffic density has a moderate and linear impact on travel delay. My policy simulations with endogenous congestion indicate that optimal congestion charges would lead to a small reduction in travel times, and small commuter welfare gains. This result is driven primarily by the shape of the congestion externality. Overall, these results suggest limited commuter welfare benefits from peak-spreading traffic policies in cities like Bangalore.
发展中国家的特大城市面临着严重的道路交通拥堵，但拥堵程度并不是衡量均衡效率低下的直接指标。我研究了班加罗尔的高峰时段交通拥堵均衡。为了衡量出行偏好，我使用出发时间选择模型设计了一个拥堵收费政策的实地实验，并使用精确的GPS数据实施。在实验中，通勤者的反应显示出适度的时间表不灵活性和高度的时间价值。然后，我展示了在班加罗尔，交通密度对旅行延误有中等和线性的影响。我对内生拥堵的政策模拟表明，最优拥堵费将导致出行时间的小幅减少，通勤者的福利收益也很小。这一结果主要是由拥堵外部性的形状驱动的。总体而言，这些结果表明，在班加罗尔等城市，峰值扩散交通政策对通勤者的福利影响有限。
Title：
Laura Boudreau
Annually, work-related mortality is responsible for 5–7% of all global deaths, and at least 1-in-9 workers experience nonfatal occupational accidents (ILO (2019a,b)). Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) committees are considered the key worker voice institution through which to improve workplace safety and health (ILO (1981)). I present evidence of OSH committees' causal effects on workers and on factories. To do so, I collaborated with 29 multinational apparel buyers that committed to enforce a local mandate for OSH committees on their suppliers in Bangladesh. With the buyers, I implemented a nearly year-long field experiment with 84 supplier factories, randomly enforcing the mandate on half. The buyers' intervention increased compliance with the OSH committee law. Exploiting the experimental variation in OSH committees' strength, I find that stronger OSH committees had small, positive effects on objective measures of safety. These improvements did not come at a cost to workers in terms of wages or employment or to factories in terms of labor productivity. The effects on compliance, safety, and voice were largest for factories with better managerial practices. Factories with worse practices did not improve, and workers in these factories reported lower job satisfaction; this finding suggests complementarity between external enforcement and internal capacity in determining the efficacy of regulation.
每年，与工作有关的死亡占全球死亡总人数的5-7%，至少九分之一的工人经历过非致命职业事故(国际劳工组织(2019年a,b))。职业安全和健康委员会被认为是改善工作场所安全和健康的主要工人发声机构(劳工组织(1981年))。我提出了职业安全与健康委员会对工人和工厂的因果影响的证据。为此，我与29家跨国服装采购商合作，它们承诺在孟加拉国对其供应商强制执行当地的职业安全与健康委员会。对于买家，我对84家供应商工厂进行了为期近一年的实地试验，随机对其中一半实施了强制执行。买家的干预增加了对职业安全与健康委员会法律的遵守。利用职业安全与健康委员会实力的实验变化，我发现更强大的职业安全与健康委员会对安全的客观测量有小的积极影响。这些改善并没有以工人的工资或就业为代价，也没有以工厂的劳动生产率为代价。对于管理实践更好的工厂，合规、安全和声音方面的影响最大。更糟糕的工厂没有改善，这些工厂的工人报告说工作满意度较低;这一发现表明，在确定监管效力方面，外部执法和内部能力之间存在互补性。
Title：
Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Mindy Z. Xiaolan
The government budget constraint ties the market value of government debt to the expected present discounted value of fiscal surpluses. We find evidence that U.S. Treasury investors fail to impose this no-arbitrage restriction in the United States. Both cyclical and long-run dynamics of tax revenues and government spending make the surplus claim risky. In a realistic asset pricing model, this risk in surpluses creates a large gap between the market value of debt and its fundamental value, the PDV of surpluses, suggesting that U.S. Treasuries may be overpriced.
政府预算约束将政府债务的市场价值与财政盈余的预期贴现价值联系在一起。我们发现有证据表明，美国国债投资者未能在美国实施这种无套利限制。税收收入和政府支出的周期性和长期动态都使盈余主张具有风险。在现实的资产定价模型中，盈余的这种风险在债务的市场价值与其基本价值(盈余的PDV)之间造成了巨大的差距，这表明美国国债可能被高估了。
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