经济学顶刊AER 2024年第7期 目录和摘要
目录
01 The Gift of a Lifetime: The Hospital, Modern Medicine, and Mortality
一生的礼物:医院、现代医学和死亡
02 100 Years of Rising Corporate Concentration
企业集中度上升的100年
03 Revealing Stereotypes: Evidence from Immigrants in Schools
揭露刻板印象:来自学校移民的证据
04 Misallocation under Trade Liberalization
贸易自由化下的错配
05 Bank Runs, Fragility, and Credit Easing
银行挤兑、脆弱性和信贷宽松
06 Opportunity Unraveled: Private Information and the Missing Markets for Financing Human Capital
机会消失:私人信息和人力资本融资的缺失市场
07 Information Choice in Auctions
拍卖中的信息选择
08 Personalized Pricing and Competition
个性化定价与竞争
09 Organized Crime and Economic Growth: Evidence from Municipalities Infiltrated by the Mafia
有组织犯罪与经济增长:来自被黑手党渗透的城市的证据
10 Demographic Origins of the Start-up Deficit
创业赤字的人口来源
Title：
Alex Hollingsworth, Krzysztof Karbownik, Melissa A. Thomasson, and Anthony Wray
We explore how access to modern hospitals and medicine affects mortality by leveraging efforts of the Duke Endowment to modernize hospitals in the early twentieth century. The Endowment helped communities build and expand hospitals, obtain state-of-the-art medical technology, attract qualified medical personnel, and refine management practices. We find that Duke support increased the size and quality of the medical sector, fostering growth in not-for-profit hospitals and high-quality physicians. Duke funding reduced both infant mortality—with larger effects for Black infants than White infants—and long-run mortality. Finally, we find that communities aided by Duke benefited more from medical innovations.
我们通过利用杜克大学捐赠基金在二十世纪初对医院进行现代化改造的努力，探讨获得现代医院和药物是如何影响死亡率的。该基金帮助社区新建和扩建医院，获得最先进的医疗技术，吸引合格的医疗人员，并改进管理做法。我们发现杜克大学的支持增加了医疗部门的规模和质量，促进了非营利性医院和高质量医生的增长。杜克大学的资助降低了婴儿死亡率(黑人婴儿比白人婴儿的影响更大)和长期死亡率。最后，我们发现杜克大学资助的社区从医疗创新中受益更多。
Title：
Spencer Y. Kwon, Yueran Ma, and Kaspar Zimmermann
We collect data on the size distribution of US businesses for 100 years, and use these data to estimate the concentration of production (e.g., asset share or sales share of top businesses). The data show that concentration has increased persistently over the past century. Rising concentration was stronger in manufacturing and mining before the 1970s, and stronger in services, retail, and wholesale after the 1970s. The results are robust to different measurement methods and consistent across different historical sources. Our findings suggest that large firms have become more important in the US economy for a long period of time.
我们收集了100年来美国企业规模分布的数据，并使用这些数据来估计生产集中度(例如，顶级企业的资产份额或销售份额)。数据显示，在过去的一个世纪里，浓度持续增加。在20世纪70年代之前，制造业和采矿业的集中度上升更为明显，而在20世纪70年代之后，服务业、零售业和批发业的集中度上升更为明显。结果对不同的测量方法具有鲁棒性，并且在不同的历史来源中保持一致。我们的研究结果表明，在很长一段时间里，大公司在美国经济中变得越来越重要。
Title：
Alberto Alesina, Michela Carlana, Eliana La Ferrara, and Paolo Pinotti
We study how people change their behavior after being made aware of bias. Teachers in Italian schools give lower grades to immigrant students relative to natives of comparable ability. In two experiments, we reveal to teachers their own stereotypes, measured by an Implicit Association Test (IAT). In the first, we find that learning one's IAT before assigning grades reduces the native-immigrant grade gap. In the second, IAT disclosure and generic debiasing have similar average effects, but there is heterogeneity: teachers with stronger negative stereotypes do not respond to generic debiasing but change their behavior when informed about their own IAT.
我们研究人们在意识到偏见后如何改变他们的行为。意大利学校的老师给移民学生的分数要低于能力相当的本国学生。在两个实验中，我们通过内隐联想测验(IAT)向教师揭示了他们自己的刻板印象。首先，我们发现在分配分数之前学习自己的IAT可以减少本土移民的成绩差距。第二，IAT披露和一般性去偏见具有相似的平均效果，但存在异质性:负面刻板印象较强的教师对一般性去偏见没有反应，但当他们被告知自己的IAT时，他们的行为会改变。
Title：
Yan Bai, Keyu Jin, and Dan Lu
This paper formalizes a classic idea that in second-best environments trade can induce welfare losses: incremental income losses from distortions can outweigh trade gains. In a Melitz model with distortionary taxes, we derive sufficient statistics for welfare gains/losses and show departures from the efficient case (Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodríguez-Clare 2012) can be captured by the gap between an input and output share and domestic extensive margin elasticities. The loss reflects an endogenous selection of more subsidized firms into exporting. Using Chinese manufacturing data in 2005 and model-inferred firm-level distortions, we demonstrate that a sizable negative fiscal externality can potentially offset conventional gains.
本文正式提出了一个经典观点，即在次优环境下，贸易可能会导致福利损失:扭曲带来的增量收入损失可能超过贸易收益。在具有扭曲性税收的Melitz模型中，我们获得了福利收益/损失的充分统计数据，并表明与有效情况(Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodríguez-Clare 2012)的背离可以通过投入产出份额和国内广义边际弹性之间的差距来捕获。这一损失反映了获得更多补贴的企业选择出口的内生选择。利用2005年的中国制造业数据和模型推断的企业层面扭曲，我们证明了相当大的负财政外部性可能会抵消传统收益。
Title：
Manuel Amador and Javier Bianchi
We present a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model of self-fulfilling bank runs, where banks trade capital in competitive and liquid markets but remain vulnerable to runs due to a loss of creditor confidence. We characterize how the vulnerability of an individual bank depends on its leverage position and the economy-wide asset prices. We study the effect of credit easing policies, in the form of asset purchases. When a banking crisis is generated by runs, credit easing can reduce the number of defaulting banks and enhance welfare. When the crisis is driven by fundamentals, credit easing may have adverse consequences.
我们提出了一个自我实现银行挤兑的可处理动态一般均衡模型，其中银行在竞争和流动性市场中交易资本，但由于债权人信心的丧失，仍然容易受到挤兑的影响。我们描述了单个银行的脆弱性如何取决于其杠杆地位和整个经济的资产价格。我们以资产购买的形式研究信贷宽松政策的效果。当挤兑引发银行危机时，放松信贷可以减少违约银行的数量，提高福利。当危机是由基本面驱动时，信贷宽松可能会产生不利后果。
Title：
Daniel Herbst and Nathaniel Hendren
We examine whether adverse selection has unraveled private markets for equity and state-contingent debt contracts for financing higher education. Using survey data on beliefs, we show a typical college-goer would have to repay 1.64 in present value for every 1 of financing to overcome adverse selection in an equity market. We find that risk-averse college-goers are not willing to accept these terms, so markets unravel. We discuss why moral hazard, biased beliefs, and outside credit options are less likely to explain the absence of these markets. We quantify the welfare gains for subsidizing equity-like contracts that mitigate college-going risks.
我们研究逆向选择是否已经瓦解了私募股权市场和资助高等教育的国家或有债务合同。通过对信念的调查数据，我们表明，一个典型的大学生必须为每1笔融资偿还1.64的现值，才能克服股票市场上的逆向选择。我们发现，厌恶风险的大学生不愿意接受这些条款，因此市场崩溃了。我们讨论了为什么道德风险、有偏见的信念和外部信贷选择不太可能解释这些市场的缺失。我们量化了为减轻上大学风险的类股权合同提供补贴的福利收益。
Title：
Nina Bobkova
The choice of an auction mechanism influences which object characteristics bidders learn about and whether the object is allocated efficiently. Some object characteristics are valued equally by all bidders and thus are inconsequential for the efficient allocation. Others matter only to certain bidders and thus determine the bidder with the highest valuation. I show when the second-price auction is ex ante efficient by inducing bidders to seek socially relevant information. When facing a continuous learning trade-off, bidders learn more about socially relevant components and less about common characteristics of the object in a second-price auction than a first-price auction.
拍卖机制的选择会影响竞标者了解的物品特征以及物品是否被有效分配。有些物品的特性被所有竞标者同等重视，因此对有效分配是无关紧要的。其他条款只对某些竞标者重要，因此决定了出价最高的竞标者。我展示了二级价格拍卖通过诱导竞标者寻找社会相关信息而具有事前效率的情况。当面临持续的学习权衡时，与第一价格拍卖相比，在第二价格拍卖中，竞标者对社会相关成分的了解更多，对物品共同特征的了解更少。
Title：
Andrew Rhodes and Jidong Zhou
We study personalized pricing in a general oligopoly model. The impact of personalized pricing relative to uniform pricing hinges on the degree of market coverage. If market conditions are such that coverage is high (e.g., the production cost is low or the number of firms is high), personalized pricing harms firms and benefits consumers, whereas the opposite is true if coverage is low. When only some firms have data to personalize prices, consumers can be worse off compared to when either all or no firms personalize prices.
我们研究了一般寡头垄断模型下的个性化定价。个性化定价相对于统一定价的影响取决于市场覆盖的程度。如果市场条件是覆盖率高(例如，生产成本低或公司数量多)，个性化定价对公司不利，对消费者有利，而覆盖率低则相反。当只有一些公司拥有个性化价格的数据时，与所有公司或没有公司提供个性化价格相比，消费者的处境可能更糟。
Title：
Alessandra Fenizia and Raffaele Saggio
This paper studies the long-run economic impact of dismissing city councils infiltrated by organized crime. Applying a matched difference-in-differences design to the universe of Italian social security records, we find that city council dismissals (CCDs) increase employment, the number of firms, and industrial real estate prices. The effects are concentrated in Mafia-dominated sectors and in municipalities where fewer incumbents are reelected. The dismissals generate large economic returns by weakening the Mafia and fostering trust in local institutions. The analysis suggests that CCDs represent an effective intervention for establishing legitimacy and spurring economic activity in areas dominated by organized crime.
本文研究解散被有组织犯罪渗透的市议会的长期经济影响。将匹配的差异中差异设计应用于意大利社会保障记录的整体，我们发现市议会解散(CCDs)增加了就业、公司数量和工业房地产价格。这种影响主要集中在黑手党主导的部门和连任官员较少的市政当局。通过削弱黑手党和培养对地方机构的信任，解雇产生了巨大的经济回报。分析表明，CCDs是在有组织犯罪占主导地位的地区建立合法性和刺激经济活动的有效干预措施。
Title：
Fatih Karahan, Benjamin Pugsley, and Ayşegül Şahin
We propose a simple explanation for the long-run decline in the US start-up rate. It originates from a slowdown in labor supply growth since the late 1970s, largely predetermined by demographics. This channel can explain roughly half of the decline and why incumbent firm survival and average growth over the life cycle have changed little. We show these results in a standard model of firm dynamics and test the mechanism using cross-state variation in labor supply growth. Finally, we show that a longer entry rate series imputed using historical establishment tabulations rises over the 1960s–1970s period of accelerating labor force growth.
我们对美国创业率的长期下降提出了一个简单的解释。它源于20世纪70年代末以来劳动力供应增长的放缓，这在很大程度上是由人口结构决定的。这个渠道可以解释大约一半的下降，以及为什么现有公司的生存和平均增长在生命周期中几乎没有变化。我们在企业动力学的标准模型中展示了这些结果，并使用劳动力供给增长的跨州变化来测试机制。最后，我们表明，在劳动力加速增长的20世纪60年代至70年代期间，使用历史建制表推算的较长的进入率序列上升。
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